{ "current_ruleset_robustness": { "ablation": { "arbitrum": { "blocktime_instability": { "changed": 0, "changed_pct": 0.0, "rows": 613 }, "capacity_util_pct": { "changed": 70, "changed_pct": 11.4192, "rows": 613 }, "median_tx_fee_native": { "changed": 148, "changed_pct": 24.1436, "rows": 613 }, "tx_count_daily": { "changed": 52, "changed_pct": 8.4829, "rows": 613 }, "unique_active_addresses": { "changed": 31, "changed_pct": 5.0571, "rows": 613 } }, "base": { "blocktime_instability": { "changed": 0, "changed_pct": 0.0, "rows": 613 }, "capacity_util_pct": { "changed": 72, "changed_pct": 11.7455, "rows": 613 }, "median_tx_fee_native": { "changed": 165, "changed_pct": 26.9168, "rows": 613 }, "tx_count_daily": { "changed": 55, "changed_pct": 8.9723, "rows": 613 }, "unique_active_addresses": { "changed": 18, "changed_pct": 2.9364, "rows": 613 } }, "bitcoin": { "block_weight_utilization_pct": { "changed": 11, "changed_pct": 4.3137, "rows": 255 }, "blocktime_instability": { "changed": 22, "changed_pct": 8.6275, "rows": 255 }, "median_tx_fee_native": { "changed": 54, "changed_pct": 21.1765, "rows": 255 }, "tx_count_daily": { "changed": 38, "changed_pct": 14.902, "rows": 255 }, "unique_active_addresses": { "changed": 0, "changed_pct": 0.0, "rows": 255 } }, "ethereum": { "blocktime_instability": { "changed": 0, "changed_pct": 0.0, "rows": 619 }, "failed_tx_rate": { "changed": 76, "changed_pct": 12.2779, "rows": 619 }, "gas_utilization_pct": { "changed": 156, "changed_pct": 25.2019, "rows": 619 }, "median_tx_fee_native": { "changed": 61, "changed_pct": 9.8546, "rows": 619 }, "nonempty_calldata_share": { "changed": 20, "changed_pct": 3.231, "rows": 619 }, "tx_count_daily": { "changed": 41, "changed_pct": 6.6236, "rows": 619 }, "unique_active_addresses": { "changed": 13, "changed_pct": 2.1002, "rows": 619 } } }, "baseline_reproduction": { "mismatch_pct": 0.0, "mismatches": 0, "rows": 2100, "status": "PASS" }, "combined_threshold_sensitivity": { "0.90": { "changed": 138, "changed_pct": 6.5714, "unchanged_pct": 93.4286 }, "0.95": { "changed": 50, "changed_pct": 2.381, "unchanged_pct": 97.619 }, "1.05": { "changed": 73, "changed_pct": 3.4762, "unchanged_pct": 96.5238 }, "1.10": { "changed": 170, "changed_pct": 8.0952, "unchanged_pct": 91.9048 } }, "scope": { "chains": { "arbitrum": 613, "base": 613, "bitcoin": 255, "ethereum": 619 }, "first_date": { "arbitrum": "2024-12-01", "base": "2024-12-01", "bitcoin": "2024-12-01", "ethereum": "2024-12-01" }, "last_date": { "arbitrum": "2026-08-05", "base": "2026-08-05", "bitcoin": "2026-08-11", "ethereum": "2026-08-11" }, "rows": 2100, "target": "core candidate-label classifier; confidence gate and downstream scorecard reconciliation are held outside the perturbation" }, "status": "PASS", "threshold_family_sensitivity": { "pct": { "0.90": { "changed": 122, "changed_pct": 5.8095 }, "0.95": { "changed": 42, "changed_pct": 2.0 }, "1.05": { "changed": 57, "changed_pct": 2.7143 }, "1.10": { "changed": 138, "changed_pct": 6.5714 } }, "trend": { "0.90": { "changed": 4, "changed_pct": 0.1905 }, "0.95": { "changed": 1, "changed_pct": 0.0476 }, "1.05": { "changed": 7, "changed_pct": 0.3333 }, "1.10": { "changed": 11, "changed_pct": 0.5238 } }, "z": { "0.90": { "changed": 18, "changed_pct": 0.8571 }, "0.95": { "changed": 8, "changed_pct": 0.381 }, "1.05": { "changed": 8, "changed_pct": 0.381 }, "1.10": { "changed": 17, "changed_pct": 0.8095 } } } }, "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-12T18:04:00Z", "governance": { "avoid_claims": [ "scientifically proven correct", "validated prediction accuracy", "confidence equals probability of correctness" ], "recommended_public_claim": "Empirically tested for internal consistency and robustness.", "rerun_after_methodology_change": true, "ruleset_version_required_for_material_change": true }, "historical_internal_consistency": { "results": { "aba_whipsaws": 260, "candidate_signature_inconsistencies": 0, "hard_rule_violations": 0, "historical_sanity_adjustments": 18, "missing_dates": 0, "one_day_regime_runs": 431, "regime_switches": 886 }, "scope": { "all_dated_meta_rows_available_at_audit_date": true, "published_chain_days": 2464 }, "status": "PASS" }, "interpretation": { "headline": "The current Urd Atlas classification framework is internally coherent and empirically robust to moderate threshold perturbations.", "key_findings": [ "No hard internal rule violations were found across 2,464 published chain-days.", "The current rulesets reproduced 2,100 of 2,100 candidate labels exactly before counterfactual testing.", "A simultaneous 5% threshold perturbation left 96.52% to 97.62% of candidate labels unchanged.", "Percentile thresholds are the most influential threshold family in the tested perturbation range.", "Single-signal ablation effects broadly align with the intended Demand, Friction and Capacity semantics." ] }, "methodology": { "baseline_thresholds": { "extreme_pct": 90.0, "extreme_z": 2.5, "high_pct": 80.0, "high_z": 1.5, "trend_eps": 0.15 }, "confidence_formula": "sqrt(data_quality_score * label_confidence_score)", "confidence_methodology": "confidence_v3_l2_capacity_required", "current_regime_rulesets": { "arbitrum": "l2_v1", "base": "l2_v1", "bitcoin": "btc_v2", "ethereum": "eth_l1_v2" }, "publish_confidence_threshold": 0.4 }, "product": { "axes": [ "demand", "friction", "capacity" ], "chains": [ "bitcoin", "ethereum", "arbitrum", "base" ], "classification_type": "descriptive network-state classification", "name": "Urd Atlas", "predictive_claim": false, "price_inputs": false, "public_labels": [ "STABLE", "HEATING", "CONGESTED", "CHEAP", "UNKNOWN/DEGRADED" ] }, "provenance": { "documentation_merge_commit": "a5e1d8061d5158e4d1ea16856f39cb9a2df1fe7d", "internal_consistency_audit": "urd_atlas_internal_consistency_audit_v2", "repository": "martibal/Trendanalytics", "sensitivity_ablation_audit": "urd_atlas_internal_validation_sensitivity_ablation_v1" }, "report_id": "validation-v1-2026-08-12", "schema": "urd-atlas-verification-pack", "schema_version": "1.0.0", "validation_boundary": { "not_claimed": [ "external ground-truth regime accuracy", "calibrated probability that a label is correct", "price or return prediction", "trading or investment recommendation", "global optimality of the current signal set" ], "validated": [ "deterministic baseline reproduction", "internal rule consistency", "candidate-signature consistency", "threshold sensitivity", "single-signal ablation" ] }, "validation_date": "2026-08-12" }