URD ATLAS
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This page defines the public meaning of the published artifacts. It is meant to let a careful technical customer understand the outputs without turning the public trust layer into a blueprint for reconstructing upstream raw data or cloning the internal pipeline.
null.| Layer | Definition | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | Daily observation layer for a chain and UTC date. | Direct daily chain aggregates or robust daily summaries. No regime interpretation. |
| Derived | Deterministic trend layer built from Gold. | Rolling transforms used for charting and trend context. |
| Meta | Analytical layer. | Publishes regime, confidence, scorecard, drivers, freshness context, and presentation helpers. |
| Briefs | Readable JSON summary layer. | Publishes short descriptive summaries of latest Meta context for fast reading, reporting, and non-pipeline workflows. |
Gold publishes direct daily chain observations or robust daily summaries. Gold does not apply regime logic, confidence degradation, or categorical interpretation.
| Field family | Public meaning | Verification class |
|---|---|---|
| Daily counts | Daily transaction volume and block production activity. | B |
| Native value and fee fields | Native-denominated transfer throughput and typical same-day transaction magnitude / fee burden. | B |
| Execution-quality or capacity fields | Daily failure burden or capacity usage where those semantics are meaningful. | B |
| Breadth and cadence fields | Participation breadth and typical inter-block interval behavior. | B |
Derived fields are deterministic transforms of Gold. The core public pattern is the rolling average family: <metric>__ma7 and <metric>__ma30.
__ma7 is the 7-day simple moving average. __ma30 is the 30-day simple moving average. At the beginning of the archive these use the available observations rather than forcing nulls solely due to insufficient lookback.
Confidence answers a narrow evidence-quality question: how well-supported is the current published analytical state by the relevant data and by the evidence for the specific label? It is not a probability of future price movement and not a trading signal.
The public composite remains the geometric mean:
confidence_score = sqrt(data_quality_score × label_confidence_score)
The current public confidence gate remains 0.40. Below that threshold, the product publishes UNKNOWN/DEGRADED rather than presenting a normal-confidence regime label. Current Meta rows identify the confidence method as confidence_v3_l2_capacity_required. The score is a structured reliability measure, not a calibrated probability that the label is correct.
| Component | What it measures | Confidence v3 behavior |
|---|---|---|
data_quality_score | Whether the relevant chain-specific evidence surface is complete, recent, dense, and historically deep enough. | Structurally non-applicable fields are excluded from the denominator. Optional fields are listed but do not reduce confidence when they are not part of the current regime evidence surface. |
label_confidence_score | Whether the evidence clearly supports the specific label that was assigned. | Label-specific logic is used: HEATING emphasizes demand and trend; CONGESTED emphasizes friction/capacity pressure; CHEAP emphasizes low-friction evidence and lack of tight capacity; STABLE emphasizes genuine neutrality and absence of strong drivers. |
confidence.candidate_label | The label the evidence supported before the confidence gate was applied. | When confidence is below threshold, the candidate can be retained for auditability while the public label is withheld as UNKNOWN/DEGRADED. |
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Base, and Arbitrum do not expose the same meaningful evidence surface. For example, EVM-only execution fields are not part of the Bitcoin confidence denominator. A missing field should reduce confidence only when that field is required for the chain profile and current methodology.
The scorecard compresses current chain conditions into three axes: demand, friction, and capacity. Scores are chain-relative and bounded to a 0–100 display scale with 50 as the neutral point.
Score construction uses robust normalization against each chain’s own historical baseline. The currently implemented score family applies 7-day smoothing before historical comparison, excludes the most recent 14 days from the baseline, and maps robust z-scores into a bounded display score via 50 + 40 × tanh(z / 1.5).
The displayed score is confidence-degraded using 50 + (raw - 50) × effective_confidence.
Confidence v3 uses raw scorecard/regime evidence to evaluate label confidence. The public score displayed on pages is intentionally pulled toward 50 when confidence is lower. This avoids using an already confidence-degraded display score to compute confidence again.
regime.drivers[].z_robust is computed from 180-day raw daily values using 0.6745 × (x − median) / MAD. Scorecard dimension scores are computed from 7-day rolling averages against a 365-day baseline using (x − median) / (1.4826 × MAD). These are two separate calculations with separate purposes and separate input series. They will not produce identical values for the same metric on the same day.
Bitcoin does not use EVM gas semantics. The current BTC Capacity score combines directblock_weight_utilization_pct with a lower-weightblocktime_instabilitycomponent. Block weight measures blockspace occupancy; block-time instability measures unusual variation around Bitcoin's own recent cadence.
High blockspace use can therefore register as capacity pressure and can veto a CHEAP classification, while CONGESTED still requires simultaneous Friction pressure. The instability component should be read as supporting cadence evidence, not as a directional claim that slower blocks alone equal congestion.
Regime is the product’s categorical interpretation layer. It maps chain-relative analytical conditions into one of five public states: STABLE, HEATING, CONGESTED, CHEAP, and UNKNOWN/DEGRADED.
The current implemented regime engine uses:
0.15 for heating/cooling trend stateCONGESTED → CHEAP → HEATING → STABLEUrd Atlas does not apply a universal fixed multi-day confirmation rule across all regime labels. Persistence is label-specific. HEATING depends in part on a trend condition derived from short-vs-medium horizon behaviour, which introduces implicit persistence. CONGESTED and CHEAP are state-triggered classifications and do not require separate trend confirmation or a fixed multi-day confirmation window before publication.
The scorecard and regime label are related but not identical. A scorecard axis can show adjacent pressure, such as high demand, while the regime label remains STABLE if the regime-axis evidence did not cross the label threshold. In those cases status.one_liner should explain the adjacent pressure instead of implying that the scorecard and regime label are the same thing.
HEATING requires directional trend confirmation: the short-term moving average must be running ahead of the medium-term average before the label fires.CONGESTED and CHEAP do not require trend confirmation. Either label can fire on a single-day threshold crossing if the relevant axis signals are sufficiently elevated or depressed.Some analytical components are intentionally derived rather than directly copied from a Gold field. This is methodologically valid, but it changes what the published score means.
median_tx_fee_nativedirectly; Ethereum additionally uses failed_tx_rate. The L2 scorecard does not use a value-normalized fee ratio because the current L2 value field does not support that interpretation.block_weight_utilization_pct andblocktime_instability. The latter is an instability proxy around the recent block-time norm, not a directional slow-block-only measure.A period of consistently fast block times and a period of consistently slow block times can both produce low BTC capacity stress if both are stable relative to the recent norm.
Archived Meta rows do not rely on a separate public revision integer for identity. Public row identity is anchored in the fields that are actually present in the archive.
chain, date, methodology_versionconfidence.methodology_version, confidence.formula, confidence.candidate_labelregime.determinism_hashupdated_through, confidence.confidence_score, status.labelThe public methodology is designed to make the product auditable in meaning, not reconstructable in implementation.
For field-by-field definitions, continue to Field Dictionary. For concrete worked examples, continue to Verification & Evidence Pack.